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Mozambique is on fire; the Northern Province of Cabo Delgado is under siege, thousands of people including foreigners have been displaced, conflict and fighting continue to escalate in Palma. Dozens of people have lost their lives and some Heads of State from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are set to meet this Thursday in a much-awaited, long overdue Troika Summit penciled for Maputo, Mozambique.
This will not be the first summit to discuss Mozambique's crisis. Last year, President Mnangagwa hosted a one-day Extraordinary Organ Troika Summit during his term in office as the Chairperson of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation. This time around, the summit will last for two-days and SADC leaders are expected to deliberate on lasting measures to address terrorism in the host country.
What's going on in Cabo Delgado?
The battle of Palma is a tragedy that highlights the four-year insurgency of the Islamist-State linked rebels that continue to terrify Mozambique and disaffect young men. To date, the rebels have displaced an estimated 700,000 people and killed 2.600 civilians.
The military and humanitarian crisis in Mozambique began in 2017 and ever since the first gun shot, the Mozambican army has been fighting the rebels in several locations to regain control of Cabo Delgado. Most communications in recent days with Palma and surrounding areas have been cut off by the insurgents.
The rebels are locally known as Al-Shabab but with no established links with the rebel group in Somalia. The ISIL-linked fighters besieged the town of Palma, forcing 200 people to seek refuge in a hotel .
Why is this happening?
The Palma attacks started few hours after the French energy company, Total announced that, it would resume work outside the town of Palma, on its huge natural gas project at Afungi near Mozambique's north-eastern border with Tanzania.
Earlier in January, similar rebel attacks prompted Total to suspend works on the project to extract gas on the offshore sites in the Indian Ocean. The gas deposits are estimated to be among the world's largest gas reserves worth $60 billion and the rebels are going after the gas.
Other political commentators subscribe to the view that, although the motivations, momentum and military capabilities of groups vary considerably, the extremist groups operating in West Africa, for example the Boko Haram are seeking to exploit the fragility of national governments weakened by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Be that as it may; there are young boys that are voluntarily joining the rebel groups, citing social inequality, unemployment, and lack of opportunities. There are also religious groups that are discontent with the governance culture in Mozambique and have decided to confront the leaders, moving away from ballots to bullets.
What does the future hold for Cabo Delgado?
Portugal is set to deploy only 60 troops to support the Mozambican army in training special forces. Its alright to support and stand in solidarity with your former colony, but the number is obviously way too low as compared to the number of Portuguese troops sent to Mozambique during the dark days of colonialism.
Season two of the SADC Troika Summit talkshow is highly anticipated, but one doubts if this year's intervention will bring about a meaningful and lasting panacea for Cabo Delgado. The system of regional talks that lack implementations started with the African Union. The Terrorism Intensity Index shows that, sub-Saharan Africa is now home to seven of the world's ten riskiest locations.
It is no surprise that Africa is a hotspot for violence and terror, with countries such as Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Chad, Somalia, Burundi, Mozambique and many others going through atrocities and terror in the presence of defence and security organs scattered around the continent.
African governments prefer to counter terrorism with a heavy security approach. If President Mnangagwa, Cyril Ramaphosa, and Mokgweetsi Masisi respectively decide to deploy large-scale SADC military troops to Cabo Delgado, the counter-approach will come with serious consequences.
The operations will likely result in substantial human rights violations committed against the civilian population particularly women and girls. The fifteen SADC member states combined have limited funds at their disposal to meaningfully address the socio-economic grievances fuelling these insurgencies.
The deteriorating situation in Cabo Delgado represents a series of risks for extractive operators. The physical security of their assets are in trouble, their personnel is in danger and distribution routes have become death traps. Mining operators that depend on logistical routes like sea ports are likely to witness more ambushes and rent-seeking roadblocks in the years ahead.
Such developments are bad for business, not only for Mozambique but Africa as a whole, especially now when the continent is trying to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Serious domestic and foreign investors will not put money in a war zone unless otherwise.
While Africa has successfuly failed to silence the guns by the set deadline (2020), Agenda 2063 hangs in the balance. Achieving the Africa We Want is highly improbable as long as Africans remain stuck in the battlefield trenches.
Dark days lie ahead for Cabo Delgado; the rebels will continue to kill hundreds of people, wreaking havoc and displacing communities while at the same time capturing towns.
@stajicesimmz